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Extreme heat events are increasing in frequency and intensity, challenging electricity infrastructure due to growing cooling demand and posing public health risks to urbanites. In order to minimize risks from increasing extreme heat, it is critical to (a) project increases in electricity use with urban warming, and (b) identify neighborhoods that are most vulnerable due in part to a lack of air conditioning (AC) and inability to afford increased energy. Here, we utilize smart meter data from 180 476 households in Southern California to quantify increases in residential electricity use per degree warming for each census tract. We also compute AC penetration rates, finding that air conditioners are less prevalent in poorer census tracts. Utilizing climate change projections for end of century, we show that 55% and 30% of the census tracts identified as most vulnerable are expected to experience more than 16 and 32 extreme heat days per year, respectively.

 

Climate change, urbanization, and economic growth are expected to drive increases in the installation of new air conditioners, as well as increases in utilization of existing air conditioning (AC) units, in the coming decades. This growth will provide challenges for a diversity of stakeholders, from grid operators charged with maintaining a reliable and cost-effective power system, to low-income communities that may struggle to afford increased electricity costs. Despite the importance of building a quantitative understanding of trends in existing and future AC usage, methods to estimate AC penetration with high spatial and temporal resolution are lacking. In this study we develop a new classification method to characterize AC penetration patterns with unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution (i.e. at the census tract level), using the Greater Los Angeles Area as a case study. The method utilizes smart meter data records from 180 476 households over two years, along with local ambient temperature records. When spatially aggregated, the overall AC penetration rate of the Greater Los Angeles Area is 69%, which is similar to values reported by previous studies. We believe this method can be applied to other regions of the world where household smart meter data are available.

 

Abstract. Urbanization has a profound influence on regional meteorology and air qualityin megapolitan Southern California. The influence of urbanization onmeteorology is driven by changes in land surface physical properties and landsurface processes. These changes in meteorology in turn influence air qualityby changing temperature-dependent chemical reactions and emissions,gas–particle phase partitioning, and ventilation of pollutants. In this studywe characterize the influence of land surface changes via historicalurbanization from before human settlement to the present day on meteorology andair quality in Southern California using the Weather Research and ForecastingModel coupled to chemistry and the single-layer urban canopy model(WRF–UCM–Chem). We assume identical anthropogenic emissions for thesimulations carried out and thus focus on the effect of changes in landsurface physical properties and land surface processes on air quality.Historical urbanization has led to daytime air temperature decreases of up to1.4 K and evening temperature increases of up to 1.7 K. Ventilation of airin the LA basin has decreased up to 36.6 % during daytime and increasedup to 27.0 % during nighttime. These changes in meteorology are mainlyattributable to higher evaporative fluxes and thermal inertia of soil fromirrigation and increased surface roughness and thermal inertia frombuildings. Changes in ventilation drive changes in hourlyNOx concentrations with increases of up to 2.7 ppb duringdaytime and decreases of up to 4.7 ppb at night. Hourly O3concentrations decrease by up to 0.94 ppb in the morning and increase by upto 5.6 ppb at other times of day. Changes in O3 concentrations aredriven by the competing effects of changes in ventilation and precursorNOx concentrations. PM2.5 concentrations show slightincreases during the day and decreases of up to 2.5 µg m−3at night. Process drivers for changes in PM2.5 include modificationsto atmospheric ventilation and temperature, which impact gas–particle phasepartitioning for semi-volatile compounds and chemical reactions.Understanding process drivers related to how land surface changes effectregional meteorology and air quality is crucial for decision-making on urbanplanning in megapolitan Southern California to achieve regional climateadaptation and air quality improvements.